Silly season: Place your bets for 2025


December 17, 2024

๐ŸŽ„ Happy returns ๐ŸŽ„

Dear Reader,

Just two weeks of 2024 remain.

A year in which the S&P 500 has climbed almost 30% โ€” about triple its annual return:

A year in which central banks began slashing interest rates having battled the highest inflation of the past 25 years:

A year in which a resurgent Donald Trump led the Republican Party back to power in the U.S.:

A year in which NVIDIA surpassed Apple to become the most valuable company on the planet:

In which Bitcoin hit a six-figure valuation for the first time:

And in which Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy both became the first 'Bitcoin treasury' company, and the first such company to enter the NASDAQ 100.

You could say that the theme of this year for investors has been up and/or to the right.

How much further this bull market runs, as always, we must wait to see.

For The Benchmark, however, it doesn't matter whether prices are rising or falling.

There's stories and insights everywhere.

After writing nearly 40 of these emails this year, as I take a pause before writing at least that many next year, here's five of the most-read Benchmark stories from 2024.

โ€‹The 0.00000001% investing mindset: This is the investing email I promised I'd never write, and the one worth breaking that promise for. It's about the obvious things all around us that we ignore.

โ€‹The other Great Depression: Most people think the Great Depression started with Wall Street's notorious 1929 crash. As you'll see though, people are all too easily tricked by their short memories.

โ€‹Unskilled 24-year-olds running Wall Street: Never before have so many unskilled twenty-four-year-olds made so much money in so little time as the characters you'll read about in this one.

โ€‹The stock market vs. the 'real' world: Behold the stark reality of working for money, versus putting money to work in the markets โ€” and a stack of other confronting charts about the markets and economy.

โ€‹Why this elite ex-trader ditched Wall St for fast food: The ultimate arbitrage trade? Taking your earnings from seven years trading for 'the hedge fund king' and investing it into a Mexican takeaway empire on the other side of the planet.

These are some of the stories subscribers enjoyed most this year.

As for next year? Here's what 20 of Wall Street's top firms would have us believe.

That's it for The Benchmark in 2024.

Thank you for reading my emails โ€” it's been a pleasure and privilege to research and share these ideas with you this year.

I always appreciate the replied and feedback.

We'll be back in January with fresh stories, ideas and insights into the stock market and the broader financial world.

In the meantime, I wish you a happy, safe, and restful festive season.

Merry Christmas,

Thom
โ€‹The Benchmark

P.S. Here's my prediction on where BTC goes in 2025. You're welcome. โ€‹
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All information contained in The Benchmark and on navexa.io is for education and informational purposes only. It is not intended as a substitute for professional financial or tax advice. The Benchmark and any contributors to The Benchmark are not financial professionals, and are not aware of your personal financial circumstances.

The Benchmark

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